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油价地缘驱动叠加反内卷深化 化工龙头盈利爆发

2026-10-20 16:30:31来源：中财网  


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CFi.CN讯：数据显示，本周化工板块下跌6.98%，但炼油化工子板块领涨，荣盛石化、恒逸石化前三季度净利同比暴增超700%和3300%，印证一体化炼化企业显著受益于油价上行与供给收缩。中东冲突升级、墨西哥湾飓风致原油减产146万桶/日，叠加美欧库存回落，布伦特油价中枢已升至85美元/桶。

近期机构研报指出，当前化工行业正迎来周期与成长双轮驱动：一方面，PTA、有机硅、制冷剂等传统赛道加速“反内卷”，行业自律机制落地、新增产能有序收敛；另一方面，电子化学品、OLED材料、高频高速树脂等成长主线受AI算力扩张和国产替代催化，需求刚性增强。

研报认为，拥有原油成本传导能力的一体化大炼化企业(如荣盛、恒逸)、配额优势明显的制冷剂龙头(巨化股份)、以及卡位半导体和显示关键材料的电子化学品企业(中巨芯、莱特光电)，将优先兑现盈利弹性与估值提升。

关键词： 商业频道 快讯

责任编辑：hnmd003

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